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After whiffing on their top targets the last two years, the Toronto Blue Jays finally connected on a big free agent last night, reportedly agreeing to a seven-year, $210-million US deal with talented pitcher Dylan Cease.
The right-handed starter, who turns 30 next month, went 8-12 with a 4.55 ERA in 32 starts last season for the San Diego Padres. But you have to look beyond those unsightly traditional stats to get a true sense of Cease's quality. And what the underlying numbers show is a strikeout artist of the highest order.
Last season, Cease struck out 215 batters over 168 innings. That works out to 11.5 Ks per nine, which was the highest rate in the entire major leagues. Over the course of his seven-year career, which started with the Chicago White Sox, Cease has fanned 10.9 hitters per nine innings. That's the third-best rate in the history of baseball among guys who have pitched at least 1,000 innings.
The price Cease pays for all those strikeouts is a lot of walks. Last season, he issued 71 of them — a rate of 3.8 per nine innings. That ranked third-worst in the majors, and it also happens to be his career average, so it's not like he just had an unusually wild year. In fact, since he became a full-time big-leaguer in 2020, Cease leads the majors in both total strikeouts and walks and is tied for the most wild pitches.
Cease is also a bit hit-and-miss in terms of his performance from year to year. In 2022 with the White Sox, he finished second in Cy Young voting after going 14-8 with a 2.20 ERA and leading all American League pitchers with 6.4 Wins Above Replacement. And in 2024 with the Padres, he placed fourth in the National League Cy Young vote after going 14-11 with a 3.47 ERA and 4.1 WAR. But in 2023 and 2025 (first with Chicago, then San Diego) he went a combined 15-21 with a 4.57 ERA and an average WAR of just 1.65. The good news for the Jays, I guess, is that we're entering an even-number year.
Would it be nice to get a little more consistency for $30 million a year? Sure. But, to win a World Series, most teams who aren't the Dodgers need to overperform in the post-season. And a good way to give yourself a chance to do that is by stocking your roster with high-ceiling players, even if their floor is a bit lower than you'd like.
Cease fits that bill with his overpowering stuff, even if he can be erratic at times. And, in terms of durability, he's been extremely steady, making 32 or 33 starts and working between 165 and 189 innings in each of the last five years.
Next move?
Assuming the Cease contract is finalized, the Blue Jays' starting rotation is looking very good.
At the top you have the No. 1 and No. 2 total-strikeout men in baseball over the last five years in Cease and righty Kevin Gausman. Former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber, acquired at the trade deadline, exercised his team-friendly one-year, $16M player option after an impressive return from Tommy John surgery. And late-season callup Trey Yesavage is set for his first full year in the majors after a sensational playoffs including his rookie-record 12-strikeout performance in Game 5 of the World Series. Opening Day starter Jose Berrios, who struggled before missing the playoffs with an elbow injury, is in line to move down to the fifth slot with veterans Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer expected to depart in free agency.
Meanwhile, the American League champs are still hoping to re-sign star shortstop Bo Bichette, and they're reportedly interested in outfielder Kyle Tucker, considered the top player on the market after hitting 22 homers and stealing 25 bases with an excellent .377 on-base percentage and a low strikeout rate this year for the Chicago Cubs.
Tucker is projected to command close to $40M per year and is reportedly being pursued by the Dodgers and Yankees. So this could be another case where Toronto takes a shot at the No. 1 guy only to lose out to a bigger spender. It happened two years ago when Shohei Ohtani signed with the Dodgers, and again last winter when Juan Soto chose the Mets. That forced the Jays to turn to Plan B (or C) options like Scherzer and Jeff Hoffman — who, to be fair, both played key roles in helping them nearly win a stunning World Series title.
But, by striking quickly on Cease, the Jays have made sure to land one of the top players on the market this time. And they've proved to everyone that they're not just window shopping anymore.